Category: Previous Posts

The Case Against Re-Signing Berglund

This may very well be a moot point after the trade deadline. Doug Armstrong may move Berglund to another contender for a prospect and/or pick. But let’s assume that Patrik Berglund plays out the year for the Blues. Then he becomes a free agent, and the Blues have a decision to make.

Does Doug Armstrong offer the Swedish centerman another contract? Or does he let him walk to another team? Berglund for years has been a player on which Blues fans love to hate. Some of that is unwarranted, of course. Berglund has been a productive two-way forward for several years now. He’s twice topped 20 goals in a season. He’s anchored the middle 6 forwards for many different Blues rosters.

But Berglund can be very streaky. His point production hasn’t passed 38 points since his third season in the league, when he scored a career-high 52 points. The Blues, and their fans, thought he was slowly blossoming into a top 2 center, but instead he’s settled into a third-line role.

In the summer of 2014, after he scored just 14 goals, the Blues extended him to a three-year, $11.1 million contract. This struck many in the fan base as odd, as at the time, a forward earning almost $4 million per season was usually a top 6 forward. Buffalo’s Tyler Ennis, in the summer of ’14, signed a 5-year, $23 million contract. He put up 89 points over the 2013/14 and 14/15 seasons. The Canadiens’ David Desharnais, in the spring of 2013, signed a 4-year, $14 million contract. He scored 100 points over the next 2 years.

Berglund, however, notched just 12 goals the year following his extension. Many fans viewed Berglund as overpaid and under-producing.

This year he’s had a goal resurgence, with 17 over 57 games played. But it seems his play-making ability has decreased recently. He had just 5 assists last season, and has just 7 so far this season. Let’s not fail to consider the contract year factor. This wouldn’t be the first time, nor will it be the last, that a player with an expiring contract plays well to raise his value and negotiating power for his next contract. During the 2014-15 season, Matt Beleskey scored a career-high 32 points before becoming a free agent. Thomas Plekanec put up a very respectable 54 points in 2015-16, earning a 2-year, $12 million extension.

So the Blues may well be tempted to try to bring Berglund back. But this would be a mistake. Players don’t often take pay cuts, and, especially if he notches 20 goals this year or more, Berglund will be asking for more than $4 million a year. Since history shows that he’s as likely to NOT score 20 goals in a season, he’d be (again) overpaid.

The Blues would do better to bring in a new face, hopefully a genuine top 2 center next year. Ivan Barbashev is playing well, and he could be a candidate to take over the middle of the third line. Doug Armstrong will need Berglund’s cap space, and Kevin Shattenkirk’s, in order to accommodate that center.

Berglund has had a very nice career for the Blues. But it’s time for him and the team to amicably part ways.

Thanks for reading.

*Image courtesy Wikipedia Creative Commons

Young Wolves Have Opportunity to Impress

The 2016-17 Blues had, for the first half of the season, been free of the injury bug. That’s somewhat unusual, as teams routinely deal with injuries every season. So it’s no surprise that it caught up to the Blues.Forwards Kyle Brodziak and Robby Fabbri are out for the rest of the year. And their absence has opened up space for a couple of young players who hope they can impress new coach Mike Yeo and GM Doug Armstrong.

The first is forward Kenny Agostino. Prior to being called up from the Chicago Wolves, he led the entire American Hockey League in points (60 in 48 games played). In his first game with the Blues, he scored a goal and led the team in shots. He’s a fast, high-energy player, and seems to be a good fit on the club so far. He stood out in training camp, but there simply was no room on the roster for him when the season opened.

The second player with an opportunity to impress is Magnus Paajarvi (pictured). The winger could be considered a veteran at this point, as this is his 7th season. I think that many Blues fans think of him as a young player (which he is, at 25) because he hasn’t made a lot of progress in the Blues lineup. His team high games played is just 55, and his goal total was 6.

Agostino and Paajarvi could be considered “4A” players, to coin a baseball term.Those are players that excel at the AAA level, which is what the AHL is, but can’t quite put it together at the major league level. But both players have an opportunity to do just that, this year with the Blues. Why? Primarily because both will see a good amount of playing time, filling in for injured forwards. Secondly, because Mike Yeo has made tweaks to the playing style of the team to allow for a more open style of play. That should benefit both Agostino and Paajarvi, who are two of the fastest skaters on the team. Further, the Blues coach and GM will likely want to see if they have a real future with the big club, considering that C Patrik Berglund could be leaving as a free agent after the season.

If Agostino and Paajarvi play well and produce offensively in the last 20 or so games of the regular season, they could slot in for next year as capable 3rd-line forwards. The third line, so often this year, has failed to produce regular offense, shuffling various forwards in and out of that line.

I, and a lot of other Blues fans, will be watching these guys with cautious hope that they can cement themselves as regular NHL players for the Blues in the future.

Thanks for reading.