Pavel Buchnevich will reinforce the Blues’ scoring lines.
While the St. Louis Blues faithful waited for the NHL Draft, waited for the seemingly inevitable Tarasenko trade, waited for clarity on free agents-to-be Jaden Schwartz and Mike Hoffman, Armstrong made a stealth strike.
Just like in years past, when no one saw it coming, President of Hockey Operations Doug Armstrong did it again. He acquired an important player to shore up the team. Just like last year, as fans waited to see if Pietrangelo would come back only to see the Blues sign Torey Krug, Doug Armstrong went outside the organization to fill a need.
The Blues went into the offseason facing a lot of change. Most notably, the forward lines are likely to see a radical makeover. Left winger Jaden Schwartz, right winger Mike Hoffman, and center Tyler Bozak are unrestricted free agents. And star winter Vladimir Tarasenko has requested a trade, citing team mismanagement of his surgeries as his reason for wanting a different team.
Would Armstrong trade Tarasenko to acquire a scoring winger to replace him? Would he bring back Schwartz and maybe Hoffman and Bozak, basically keeping the bad together? Would he go deep sea fishing for preeminent prize Gabriel Ladeskog?
Any of those could still happen, of course. But Armstrong has started the Blues’ path with his Friday trade for RW Pavel Buchnevich, of the New York Rangers.
Buchnevich is a bona fide Top 6 forward. Last season, he had 20 goals and 28 assists in 54 games. On the Rangers, only center Mika Zibanejad had more goals (24). Buchnevich was a 3rd-round pick in 2013, and he has scored 79 goals in 301 total games played, all with the Rangers. He’s only 26. He will slot in on the first two lines, and provides an immediate upgrade to the scoring forwards.
He was pretty cheap, too. The Blues sent back winger Sammy Blais and their 2nd-round pick in 2022. For the Rangers, this trade was about aligning their roster for the future. They view young players like Kaapo Kakko, Alexis Lafreniere, and Filip Chytl as their core pieces. Buchnevich is a restricted free agent, with arbitration rights, and will be a nice raise from his $3.25 million salary from 2020-21.
The Blues can afford him. Between Schwartz, Hoffman, Bozak, and Steen coming off the books, they have almost plenty of salary cap space. But whether they can go big in free agency might depend on if they can orchestrate a Tarasenko deal to their liking. Tarasenko’s cap hit is $7.5 million this year and next. With the salary cap being flat, that’s a significant salary for any team to take on.
Let’s assume that the Blues let all their unrestricted free agents go, and trade Tarasenko for prospects and/or draft picks. The forward lines could look something like this:
That is very respectable. But it does assume that Kyrou will take another step forward and that Kostin is ready for full-time NHL duty. But those are big assumptions. Robert Thomas hasn’t developed as quickly as the Blues, and their fans, hoped. They want him to be comfortable and productive in a 2nd-line center role, but he’s not there yet. The Blues would benefit from more skill and depth in their top 9 forwards.
So I expect Armstrong isn’t done. Free agency begins soon. More excitement is on the horizon.
Vladimir Tarasenko’s fate is up in the air as the Blues enter the 2021 offseason
It was reported last week that the St. Louis Blues could look to trade Vladimir Tarasenko this offseason. THis was reported by Frank Seravelli.
A trade makes a lot of sense for the Blues and for Tarasenko. No longer a face of the franchise, Tarasenko has had multiple shoulder surgeries and is still finding his way back to being a productive scoring forward. During the 2020-21 season, he had 4 goals and 10 assists in 24 games played. He still has tremendous ability ad upside, but the jury is out whether he can resume his place as a premier scoring forward in the NHL.
Four teams are said to be on the list Tarasenko provided to the Blues for which he would waive his no-trade clause: Las Vegas Golden Knights, Boston Bruins, Carolina Hurricanes, and the New York Islanders. Let’s look at what a deal could look like, with each destination.
The Golden Knights
In any deal, the Blues would probably need to take back some salary, to help offset Tarasenko’s $7 million per year. The Blues need to upgrade their scoring, particularly the LW slot on the top two lines. A player that fits that profile is Alex Tuch or Reilly Smith. Both are owed around $5 million next season. Smith is under contract just one more year, while Tuch has 5 more seasons under contract. Smith in particular, I think, would fit very well in the Berube “heavy hockey” system.
To me, Nino Neiterreiter stands out as a likely target by the Blues. He has one more year on his contract, at $5.25 million. He plays wing on a scoring line, and scored 20 goals in the 2020-21 season. He doesn’t have the upside of Tarasenko, and with one less contract year. So Tarasenko would be an offensive upgrade for the ‘Canes.
Jake DeBrusk I think the Blues would be extremely interested in. He’s a solid two-way player that can skate anywhere in the top 9. Although scoring only 5 goals in 41 games, he did have 46 goals in the 18/19 and 19/20 seasons. He has one more year on his current contract, at just over $3.5 million. The Blues could also ask for a 2nd round pick in the package.
Brock Nelson is the name the Blues should ask for in return for Tarasenko. He’s the 2nd line center for the Islanders, and is strong offensively and defensively. I had though Jordan Eberle could be a target, but his two-way game isn’t as strong. Nelson is owed $6 million per season over the next 4 years. He could slot in on the 1st or 2nd line LW for the Blues.
Now, the Eyes on Isles blog speculates here that a Tarasenko trade would be largely draft pick-based. Take it for what its worth.
The bottom line for the Blues is they need to upgrade their scoring, preferably on the left wing. They don’t know what Tarasenko will be next year and beyond. They have a lot of salary coming off the books, but a portion of that will be eaten up again by re-signing RFAs and some UFAs. Tarasenko is owed $7.5 million next year and the year after that. Trading him represents an opportunity to A) give him a change of scenery, B) clear salary space, and C) potentially acquire offensive help. I think the Blues will accomplish at least 2 of those things.